Previous Week | % Change | |
ICDX | $39.605 | 2.34% |
LME | $38.850 | -1.89% |
KLTM | $- | 0.00% |
SHFE | ¥281.720 | -0.74% |
USD/IDR | Rp14.133.01 | 0.35% |
Market Review
The average of ICDX's tin price in October (until October 22) increased 7.48% compared to last month, and an increase of 71.97% compared to the average tin price at the beginning of 2021. The tight supply of tin amid strong market demand has made tin prices continue to move positively. The International Tin Association (ITA) estimates that tin consumption will increase by 7.2% during 2021, supported by global solder production, which is expected to increase by an average of 8.8% in 2021. In addition, the global energy crisis has triggered an increase in the basic cost of upstream to downstream sectors, and this condition is expected to persist at least until the end of the year.
Indonesia's tin exports through ICDX in September fell by 29% to 2,591 metric tons. The decline in tin exports from Indonesia has made the situation of limited supply in the market even tighter, because Indonesia is the world's largest tin exporter.
Meanwhile, tin production in China decreased by 4.7% to 13,018 metric tons in September which was mostly due to the electricity crisis that hit this world's largest tin producing country and forced the government to impose electricity rationing which resulted in a decrease in production capacity. For October, output in Yunnan and Jiangxi, which are China's biggest tin producers, is expected to remain flat as there are no plans to increase production, said a source familiar with the matter. Quoting from Shanghai Metal Market, total domestic tin production is expected to reach 14,650 metric tons in October.
Market View
Mining Permit Control Moved to Central Government
After the enactment of Law no. 3 of 2020 by President Joko Widodo on June 10, 2020, the authority of the Provincial Government in the management of mineral and coal mining was transferred to the Central Government. This regulation had caused sluggishness in the mining sector in Indonesia, because there were no implementing regulations for the new Coal and Mineral Law. Then, on June 21, 2021, an implementing regulation was issued, through the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 110.K/HK.02/ MEM.B/2021, which regulates the policy of limiting the size of the Mining Business Permit Area (WIUP) for non-metallic minerals and rocks. This transfer of control over mining permits also had an impact on the tin mining sector. Several domestic tin producers withhold sales because they are still processing export permits for next year, which of course must comply this new rule.
Date | Data/Events | Actual | Expectation | Previous |
26-Oct | USA - Richmond Manufacturing Index |
| 4 | -3 |
26-Oct | USA - New Home Sales |
| 755K | 740K |
27-Oct | USA - Durable Goods Orders MoM |
| -1.1% | 1.8% |
28-Oct | Japan - Retail Sales YoY |
| -2.2% | -3.2% |
29-Oct | Japan - Prelim Industrial Production MoM |
| -2.8% | -3.6% |
29-Oct | Japan - Housing Starts YoY |
| 7.8% | 7.5% |
31-Oct | China - Manufacturing PMI |
| 49.8 | 49.6 |
31-Oct | China - Non Manufacturing PMI |
| 53.2 | 53.2 |
Source: ICDX Research