Price Performance Indicator
Product | Previous Week | % Change |
GOLDUD | $1,793.60 | -0.59% |
GOLDID | Rp 23,350,000 | -0.13% |
GOLDGR | Rp 820,600 | 0.60% |
XAUUSD | $1,792.48 | -0.54% |
COMEX | $1,796.30 | -0.69% |
USD/IDR | Rp 14,162 | 0.06% |
GOLDUD Focus:
GOLDUD closed last week's fluctuations with a slight correction of 0.59% to the level of $ 1,793.60 per Troy Ounce. Despite the broad market mood still favoring gold to remain firm lately, the impact of a rebound in the US Dollar is unavoidable and challenges investors ahead of this week's key data/events. However, the latest foundation for gold prices not to plunge further can be attributed to market concerns about the end of the stimulus policies launched during the pandemic. Also, it should be noted that US stimulus hopes and some of the world's major central banks also appeared in the press, acting as additional catalysts which at least contributed to the foundation for gold prices.
From the Fed's official speech, Powell saw that inflation could weaken next year while the US Central Bank is now preparing to reduce the level of stimulus. With this statement, it seems to give a little hope that there will be a change in the direction of the US monetary policy at least at the Fed meeting next month, thus making the USD value strengthen relative to the gold price, although there is no signal that there will be a change in US interest rates.
Furthermore, from the data, the release of US’ GDP figures this week only showed a growth of 2% compared to the previous period which grew by 6.7%. From a number of economists, the slowdown in growth that occurred was caused by the COVID-19 condition that disrupted the supply chain which led to a decline in the supply of auto parts, thereby suppressing market demand. In general, with the low growth rate, market participants are concerned that at the next meeting of the Fed, it will again fail to decide on an increase in US interest rates or at least a reduction in the amount of stimulus.
Apart from the focus from within the US, the impact of the European Central Bank's dovish monetary policy statement on the Euro has somehow been forgotten. The ECB has stuck to the plan, with President, Christine Lagarde pushing hopes of a rate hike back to at least the end of 2022 as the Bank says inflationary pressures will ease over the next year. Also, Japan’s BoJ maintained the status quo while keeping interest rates low at -0.10%. The central bank also cut its forecast for consumer inflation this year to 0% from 0.6%.
Busy Week Ahead, Fed and Non-Farm Payroll, Will It be a Turning Point?
Two issues may be in play this week, with the Fed meeting starts at 1st November and the Non-Farm Payroll will be released in Friday. For the Fed meeting only, people around the world are looking for any cues regarding the potential of monetary adjustment that may cause either US treasury yield to go higher or moving the USD. While for the Non-Farm Payroll, this week’s data were expected to show a better than previous data as it shows a recovery after last month slumps for the Non-Farm Payroll data. Will the gold prices move unexpectedly this week because major issues were playing the sentiment this week?
Date | Data/Events | Actual | Expectation | Previous |
1-Nov | US – ISM Manufacturing PMI | - | 60.4 | 61.1 |
3-Nov | US - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | - | 400K | 568K |
3-Nov | US - ISM Services PMI | - | 61.9 | 61.9 |
4-Nov | US - FOMC Rate Statement | - | <0.25% | <0.25% |
5-Nov | US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m | - | 0.40% | 0.60% |
5-Nov | US - Non-Farm Employment Change | - | 397K | 194K |
5-Nov | US - Unemployment Rate | - | 4.7% | 4.8% |
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