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Gold Retreat As US GDP Growth and Ahead of FOMC Meeting
Gold Retreat As US GDP Growth and Ahead of FOMC Meeting
Wednesday, 02 November 2022

Price Performance Indicators

Product 

Price

% change

GOLDUD

1643,79

-0,34%

GOLDGR

829600

-0,65%

XAUUSD

1644,38

-0,32%

COMEX

1639,6

-0,55%

USD/IDR

15542

-0,31%

Gold focus :

  1. ICDX gold price weakened -0.34% in a week (24/10 - 28/10).
  2. United States GDP is growing and ahead of the Fed meeting.

Market Review

ICDX gold price weakened by -0.34 compared to the previous week weighed by the United States economy experience a rebound in the third quarter and ahead of the FOMC meeting 1 - 2nd November.

The United States' Gross Domestic Product reportedly grew significantly in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US GDP grew by 2.6% compared to the prior data contracting -0.6% in the second quarter. The data released even exceeded expectations at 2.4%. US Unemployment Claims released by the Department of Labor were also reported at 217K, lower than the market forecast of 219K. US Personal Spending increased 0.6% month-to-month, exceeding expectations of 0.4%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index advanced 0.3% m/m and 6.2% y/y, while core PCE advanced 0.5% m/m and 5.1% y/y.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans reiterated his view that the US central bank needs to bring the policy rate slightly above 4.5% at the start of next year, which is currently in the 3.00% - 3.25% range, to contain growth and bring down inflation that is too high. The Fed is widely expected to increase 75 basis point rates for the fourth time at the FOMC's November 1 - 2 meeting. The condition of high benchmark interest rates reduces the attractiveness of gold because it is considered less yielding compared to other financial products.

Market View

The Fed's interest rate policy has been the main driving factor for gold movement since the Fed issued an increase in its benchmark interest rate in March and has raised 300 basis points until last September. Several Fed officials began to express views about a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes at the end of the year. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed was nearing the point where it needed to slow rate hikes. US Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown warned Jerome Powell to be wary of tightening monetary policy as millions of Americans already suffering from high inflation have also lost their jobs. Meanwhile, the projected rate hikes that have been announced are 4.25% - 4.50% by the end of this year and 4.50% - 4.75% by the end of 2023, the rate currently in the range of 3.00% - 3.25%.



WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS CALENDAR

Date

Data/Events

Actual

Expectation

Previous

31-Oktober

US - Chicago PMI

45,2

47,8

45,7

1-November

US - JOLTS Job Openings

10.72M

9.75M

10.28M

2-November

US - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

-

178K

208K

3-November

US - Federal Funds Rate

-

4.00%

3.25%

3-November

US - FOMC Statement

-

-

-

4-November

US - Non-Farm Employment Change

-

190K

263K

4-November

US - Unemployment Rate

-

3,6%

3,5%

Sumber: ICDX Research

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© Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX)
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