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Depressed After Jackson Hole, Gold Finds Catalyst from US Data
Depressed After Jackson Hole, Gold Finds Catalyst from US Data
Monday, 06 September 2021

Price Performance Indicator

Product

Previous Week

% Change

GOLDUD

$1,818.40

0.54%

GOLDID

Rp 26,226,000

-0.45%

GOLDGR

Rp 852,200

-0.65%

XAUUSD

$1,816.67

0.52%

COMEX

$1,819.50

0.78%

USD/IDR

Rp 14,431

-1.18%

GOLDUD Focus:

  • (27/08 – 03/09) Gold closes the week dramatically with a slight gain of 0.54%
  • US employment sector data supported gold prices

The gold contract GOLDUD closed last week's fluctuations with a slight gain of 0.54% to $1,818.40 per Troy Ounce. The movement of gold prices looks to pay attention to the release of a number of key US data, and is closed by the focus that digests some of the expectations of directions from central bank officials delivered at the Jackson Hole Symposium since the start of last week.

The Jackson Hole Symposium were mainly focused on speeches from Jerome Powell and James Bullard, with the main topic of talks expected by market participants are signals regarding a potential change in US monetary policy, especially regarding the timeframe for US monetary tightening. Rounding a series of speeches, Powell did not give specifics when to reduce stimulus or buy $120 billion in assets and start tightening the economy. So far, according to Powell's observations, US economic growth is still on the right track and his team will be careful in assessing the incoming data. This indicates that there are concerns about the condition of the labor sector and the inflation rate due to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19. On the results of a speech from Jerome Powell who did not give an indication of when to reduce stimulus, while a number of other Fed officials seemed to want to reduce stimulus in the near future, gold prices had lost their footing in the trading session early last week.

Ahead of the turn of the week, gold has regained its traction after the release of one of the data the market has been waiting for, namely the US employment data – which was released less attractive. From the US, the Non-Farm Employment Change released dropped drastically to 235k from the expected 720k, and compared to the revised previous period of 1053k, the data got the market's main attention and sent gold prices soaring. Meanwhile, Unemployment rate data fell as expected to 5.2%.

In addition to these two focuses, especially for the mid-term, gold prices will again be driven by the trading atmosphere which is influenced by a wider coverage of the headline. Among them are the developments of the pandemic statistics that are still being awaited, ahead of a busy week in several quarters ahead of important presentations from a number of the world's major central banks.

Market View

Central banks are waited by the public

This week, several of the world's major central banks are scheduled to present their decisions on interest rates, followed by press conferences. As the market has been waiting for, the press conference is expected to provide the latest direction for the market, especially regarding the conditions and the steps that policy makers will take in the future. Kicking off the series, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to meet the public tomorrow, followed by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS CALENDAR

Date

Data/Events

Actual

Expectation

Previous

7-Sep

RBA - Monetary Policy & Rate Statement

-

0.10%

0.10%

8-Sep

BOC - Monetary Policy & Rate Statement

-

0.25%

0.25%

9-Sep

ECB - Monetary Policy & Rate Statement

-

-

0.00%

10-Sep

US - PPI m/m

-

0.6%

1.0%

Riset Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange

Gold Weekly Newsletter

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