Jakarta, 25 January 2023 - Starting in 2023, several global economic and political events will still affect the trend of several commodity prices. Several factors from 2022 also contributed to the movement of commodity prices earlier this year. Starting from the issue of easing restrictions related to Covid-19, the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, to various countries' policy responses regarding inflation and interest rates.
For example, energy commodities, with the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China, have caused travel activities to increase drastically which has driven demand for energy fulfillment. According to ICDX Research & Development, Girta Yoga, "The market focus in the first quarter of 2023 for energy commodities is an embargo on Russian oil-derived products on February 5, OPEC is targeting 2023 oil prices to stabilize in the range of $80-$90 per barrel, the US is still experiencing a stock crisis in the State Strategic Reserve, plans to implement price caps for Russian gas on 15 February, and China loosening Australian coal import permits.”
As for CPO in particular, the main topics influencing price movements in the first quarter of 2023 are the opening up of China's territory, the Indonesian government's mandate regarding Biodiesel (B35), Ramadan, and reducing palm oil imports by Europe.
Global conditions such as the issue of recession and the United States economy also affected commodities, especially the Rupiah currency. From the internal factors themselves, the driving force was Indonesia's macroeconomic data which recorded that in the third quarter of 2022, Indonesia's economy grew by 5.72%, besides that the trade balance also showed positive performance with growth of $5.16 billion, as well as the BI interest rate which grew 5.75%.
On the other hand, the issue of recession has been the driving force behind rising gold prices in addition to global inflation. The Fed's interest rate increase which is projected to increase by 75bps, and the 2023 interest rate target of 5.1% also contribute to the movement of gold prices apart from the continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
About Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX)
The Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) is a commodity and derivatives exchange based in Indonesia. ICDX's vision is to become a global market exchange that improves national welfare, with a mission to become a benchmark for setting world commodity prices through Indonesian primary products. ICDX is an exchange supported by its members consisting of brokers and traders regulated by BAPPEBTI. ICDX members facilitate customer transaction services which include ICDX commodity futures trading contracts. Trades on ICDX will be settled, guaranteed, and cleared by the Indonesia Clearing House. For more information, please visit www.icdx.co.id
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