Middle East Conflict Pushes Oil Going Bullish
Middle East Conflict Pushes Oil Going Bullish
Tuesday, 30 April 2024

Price Performance Indicators


Previous Week

% Change



















  • In a week (4/22 - 4/26) the price of ICDX’s crude oil edged up 1.87 percent.   
  • The highest volatility reached 1.49 percent.   


Market Review

Crude oil contracts traded on ICDX were observed to move steadily and tend to strengthen above the level of $81 per barrel during the closing week ending April 26. Several positive catalysts that support oil prices include escalating tensions in the Middle East, the proposed 14th sanctions package against Russia, and bullish comments from Yellen.

Amid pressure from the US and 17 other countries for Hamas to release all its hostages as a way to end the crisis in Gaza, Israeli troops actually stepped up attacks on the city of Rafah (25/4) after previously saying they would evacuate civilians from the southern city of Gaza. On the same day, the Yemeni Houthi group again attacked commercial ships passing through the Red Sea as a form of support for Palestinians in Gaza. The Houthis have fired a number of ballistic and winged missiles at several targets in the Israeli port city of Eilat, said Yahya Sarea, the Houthi group's military spokesman.

Meanwhile, the European Union Commission is making proposals regarding the 14th sanctions package against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, which the proposal is expected to target sanctions against ships sending North Korean military equipment to Russia as well as tankers that ignore Russia's oil price limits set by G7, say European Union sources (24/4). It is estimated that around 40 companies will be added to the latest list of entities affected by the new sanctions, including Russian companies that buy equipment for the military, as well as third-country companies that have sold electronics, semiconductors and chips with military uses to Russia. The third-country companies are based in the United Arab Emirates, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and China and have sold EU and US equipment to Russia, according to a released document.

From the US, Finance Minister Janet Yellen (25/4) said that US economic growth was likely stronger than indicated by weaker-than-expected first-quarter output data. Yellen also added the potential to revise first-quarter US GDP growth higher as the US economy continues to perform very well. Yellen's comments sparked hopes that it would encourage the Fed to start lowering US benchmark interest rates, which would also encourage economic growth in the world's first largest crude oil consumer.

Market View

Markets Await US Interest Rate Decision

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve or better known as The Fed, plans to decide on policy regarding the US interest rate at its meeting on Wednesday (1/5). The market doubts that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate after the release of the inflation index which shows an increase of 2.7% in March 2024 compared to the previous year, and an increase of 2.5% compared to the monthly basis. The decision that will be taken by the Fed is important because it has the potential to affect economic growth in the world's first largest crude oil consumer.

Hamas Plans to Visit Cairo to Discuss Ceasefire

In an official statement (27/4), Deputy Chairman of Hamas, Khalil Al-Hayya, said that his party had received Israel's official response to the ceasefire proposal presented in the proposal submitted by Israel to Egyptian and Qatari mediators on April 13, and would sent a delegation to visit Cairo on Monday (29/4) to provide a response to the ceasefire proposal. Signs of reaching a ceasefire agreement grew stronger after White House national security spokesman John Kirby (28/4) said that Israel had agreed to the US request to refrain from attacking the city of Rafah.

Weekly Economic Data & Events Calendars







USA - API Crude Oil Stocks Change





USA - API Gasoline Stocks Change





USA - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change





USA - EIA Gasoline Stocks Change





USA - Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count




Source: ICDX Research

Member of
© Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX)
Join Our Monthly Newsletter
Follow Us
Contact Us
Midpoint Place, 22nd Floor, K.H. Fachrudin Street No. 26, Tanah Abang, Jakarta Pusat
+62 21 3002 7788