USD/RUB is an alternative currency option that can be traded, this is because Russia is one of the market leaders for the European Union and several other countries in various commodity sectors such as oil, natural gas, precious metals to plantation commodities such as wheat. Russia is also the third largest producer in the world, after the US and Saudi Arabia for crude oil.
Looking at the current geopolitical developments, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led several countries to issue economic sanctions, one of which is banning imports of Russian oil, this is done to force Russia to stop military aggression against Ukraine and is expected to restart peaceful dialogue between the two countries. In news circulating, the G7 member countries committed to ban Russian oil imports by May 8, while the European Union committed to ban imports of Russian oil by May 30. The agreed embargo only covers Russian oil shipments by sea, which allows sanctions to be excluded on pipeline shipments. .
However, this applies for six months for crude oil and eight months for refined products. The economic sanctions imposed by these countries make Russia's oil reserves increase, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (1/6) said that the Russian side was looking for ways to divert the amount of oil normally exported to these countries, such as the United States. Europe, Russia's oil embargo via sea accounts for about 90% of Russia and Europe's oil trade so that Russia loses its revenue, but on the other hand, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia would shift its supply to the Asian market.
In Asian markets, such as China and India are the main targets for the Russian state, because these countries have refineries to process Ural oil. India is said to have ordered 34 million barrels of Russian oil and in June India will receive 28 million barrels of Russian oil. In addition, the Chinese government announced that it would release its regional lockdown status in Shanghai starting June 1, 2022, this is a positive sentiment for the Russian state, considering that China is the largest importer of crude oil commodities.
The monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Fed can influence the fluctuation of the Dollar/Ruble currency. The rise and fall of the main interest rates in Russia and the US has a direct impact on these currencies. News releases from America have a stronger impact on the USD/RUB currency pair.
The performance of the USD currency is more dominant in the movement of this currency pair. Bureau of labor statistics reported that the annual inflation rate in the United States (US) in April fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, although it experienced a slight decline, this figure was still higher than market estimates and still at its highest level in 40 years. final. These conditions made several FOMC members express opinions to tighten economic policy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech said that a 50 basis point rate increase was very likely in the next 2 meetings, Jerome Powell also added the need for price stability because salaries lost value amid soaring inflation. Some US data such as GDP, unemployment rate, changes in Non-Farm Employment, sentiment of policy makers, geopolitical conditions and others affect the movement of USD performance.
Russia is currently experiencing a significant decline from mid-February to early March 2022, due to economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and America to stop the invasion of Ukraine. In order to revive the economy of the Russian authorities' efforts to apply pressure on Western countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin (1/4) has signed a decree that says foreign buyers must pay for purchases of Russian natural gas in rubles and if payment is not made then the contract will be terminated. , this has led to a strengthening of the Russian currency.
Seen in the last 1 year or so the movement of USD/RUB is in a fluctuating trend, which ranges from 55.40 to the 154.50 zone
To take advantage of the USD/RUBMic movement, the USD/RUB currency pair is available at GOFX with a contract size of RUB 1,000, so the opportunity to trade becomes more affordable especially with a trading margin of around $6 /lot.
Together with USD/RUB Micro, ICDX also launched three other forex pairs, namely EUR/GBP Micro, GBP/AUD Mini, and EUR/AUD Micro. These four contracts complete the collection of forex incorporated in GOFX products. Click the banner below to view the full contract specifications.
by: Jonathan Oktavianus & Taufan Dimas Hareva
The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine gave positive sentiment to several commodities, one of which was the movement of the USD/RUB pair.
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