Price Performance Indicators

• In a week (10/10 - 14/10) the price of ICDX’s crude oil edged down almost 6 percent.   
• The highest volatility reached 4.72 percent. 

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Market Review

The ICDX Crude Oil contract price in the week fell almost 6 percent for the week ended October 14, triggered by the re-escalation of Covid infections in China. Data released by China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism showed that travel activity during the week-long National Day holiday starting on October 1 decreased by 18.2% from a year ago.

Thousands of new cases of infection triggered by the Omicron BF.7 sub-variant have been reported in Inner Mongolia since early October, making the region China's newest Covid-19 epicenter. Major Chinese cities including Shanghai and Shenzhen are reported to have ramped up Covid-19 testing as infections resume. China's health authorities reported 2,089 new infections as of October 10, the highest level since August 20.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its forecast for global growth this year at 3.2% and forecast global growth in 2023 to fall to 2.7%, from the forecast released in July at 2.9%, the World Economic report said. Outlook released by IMF (11/10). The IMF also faces the risk of a global crisis next year with the world's largest economy in the EU's three world economies - representing such a global economic output.

Market View

Russian Oil Price Limit Set, Russia Threatens To Cut Supply

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (12/10), said that setting a cap on Russia's oil price at around $60 per barrel may be enough to reduce Russia's energy revenues, even allowing Russia to make a profit. Russia has previously made it clear that it will not supply oil to any country that agrees to the price limit scheme. The halt of supply from Russia has the potential to trigger supply in the global energy market to tighten further, considering that Russia is the world's second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and the world's top natural gas exporter. In addition, signs of heating up relations between the US and Saudi are dimming the potential that OPEC+ will comply with US pressure to add more supplies to the market.

OPEC+ Members Express Support for Saudi Arabia

OPEC+ member countries (16/10) expressed support for the decision to cut production agreed by the alliance of 23 oil producing countries at a meeting last October 5. The statement of support contradicts a statement by the spokesman for the US National Security Council, John Kirby on Thursday (13/10) who said that Saudi Arabia had forced all OPEC+ members to agree on production cuts and added that other OPEC countries had communicated with the US side. and said he did not agree with the Saudi decision. A series of statements of support from OPEC+ members further strengthened the agreed production cut commitments, and at the same time indicated that OPEC and its allies will not add more supplies to the market in the near future.

WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS CALENDAR

Source: ICDX Research