Price Indikator

Focus:

The added value of China's industry is increasing

Support and resistance on lead

Market Review 

ICDX tin prices rose 2.47% compared to the previous week, supported by positive industrial data sentiment from China.Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics shows that in October, the added value of industries above the specified size actually increased by 4.6% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in October, the added value of industries above the specified size increased by 0.39%. From January to October, industrial value added above specified measures increased by 4.1% compared to last year. Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the next stage, the current situation of low consumer prices will gradually ease and there will be no deflation. Judging from housing data, the real estate market is still in a transition period of adjustment. Indicators such as real estate development investment and commercial housing sales in October have shown small signs of improvement. From a long-term perspective, China's GDP per capita currently only exceeds $12,000, and there is still much room for improvement in the pace of urbanization.

But on the other side,High energy prices and supply chain problems in the global automotive industry have hampered the recovery of tin refinery production due to the Covid-19 pandemic. While demand for tin from the automotive industry is starting to recover, energy costs for tin smelters will remain high, particularly in Europe. In the long term, the outlook is bullish with markets tightening and markets facing deficits.

Market View 

Future Support and Challenges for Tin

Chinese will play an important role in determining tin prices in 2024 as shipments from Beijing have helped the market stabilize in 2023. However, analysts have different opinions regarding the direction of the market. “Tin prices rose 3 percent in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter due to stronger demand,” according to the World Bank Commodity Outlook. Stimulus measures in China and speculation that major economies are nearing the end of their monetary tightening cycles lifted sentiment towards the automotive sector, a major consumer of lead acid batteries. About 85 percent of lead demand is for batteries, and half is for replacement car batteries, which is the reason for the metal's rise in the third quarter. On the other hand, the closure of mines in Myanmar, which aims to conserve remaining tin resources, has an impact on China's raw material supply. Tin mining and processing operations in Myanmar's main Wa producing region have remained suspended since August. The region accounts for nearly one-sixth of global production and is a major supplier to manufacturers in China. As a result, the world's main consumers were forced to seek tin from alternative sources, pushing imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to jump by 24 percent in the first three quarters of this year, thereby increasing purchasing competition in other countries that are a global benchmark.

WEEKLY ECONOMICS DATA AND AGENDA

Source: ICDX Research