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Tin Silenced by Restriction Plan Activity Mines of Myanmar and China
Tin Silenced by Restriction Plan Activity Mines of Myanmar and China
Thursday, 06 July 2023

Price Performance Indicators

Product 

Price

% change

ICDX

$28,520

0.35%

LME

27,700

3.75%

KLTM

NA

-

SHFE

216960

1.23%

USD/IDR

15000

-0.17%

Focus:

  1. Within a week (26/6 - 30/6) the price of ICDX crude oil strengthened 0.35%.
  2. Global Tin supply tightening.

Market Review

The ICDX tin price movement strengthened by 0.35% in a week to a level of 28,520 influenced by Wa State, Myanmar released a comprehensive implementation plan for the suspension of mining activities.

Also further supporting the price, the stance of the government of Myanmar which will halt tin export activities as a follow up to the announcement made on April 15, 2023, the government of Wa State, Myanmar has now released a comprehensive implementation plan for the suspension of all mining activities scheduled from August 1, 2023. The government's commitment to stop unsustainable mining practices that cause wastage of resources, environmental pollution and worker safety issues. Wa state is the largest tin producing region in Myanmar with potential supply up to 17%, with most of the output going to China. Market players believe that the mining ban will tighten the already tight supply of tin mines.


From China's sentiment, last month China Yunnan Tin, the world's largest refined tin producer, said it would stop mining which could lead to further tightening of global tin supplies. In addition, according to the International Tin Association (ITA), tin production processing in southwest Yunnan ProvinceChina, Jiangxi and Guangxi declined recently due to tightening raw material supplies. Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal, a tin manufacturer leading company said the company's Laibin smelter entered routine maintenance starting May 27 and continued into early July


Market View 

Toto Haryanto Silitonga, BPS Head of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province, said that the export value of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province in May 2023 was worth US$215.78 million, an increase of 24.92 percent compared to the export value in May 2022.

Compared to the previous month (m-to-m), the export value rose 14.19 percent. Tin exports fell 1.04 percent and non-tin exports rose 336.70 percent.


China's factory activity eased in June and weakness in other sectors deepened, an official survey showed Friday (June 30, 2023), adding pressure on authorities to do more to sustain growth as demand faltered from local and abroad .

The world's second-largest economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter largely due to a strong post-COVID recovery in consumption, but policymakers were unable to sustain momentum in the second quarter.

Service sector activity for June also recorded its weakest reading since China abandoned strict COVID restrictions late last year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged up to 49.0 from 48.8 in May, remaining below the 50 point mark that separates expansion from contraction and in line with forecasts. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in activity in the services and construction sectors. With this weakening, the demand for tin decreases and affects tin prices.



WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS CALENDAR

Date

Data/Events

Actual

Expectation

Previous

3-July

CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI

50.5

50.2

50.9

3-July

US - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final

46.3

-

48.4

3-July

US - ISM Manufacturing PMI

46

47

46.9

3-July

US - Construction Dpending MOM

0.9%

0.6%

0.4%

5-July

CNY - Caixin Services PMI

53.9

-

57.1

6-July

US - FOMC Minutes

 

 

 

6-July

US - Fed Williams Speech

 

 

 

7-July

JPY - Household Spending  YoY

-

-2.4%

-4.4%

Source: ICDX Research

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