Export Moratorium Still Linger on Indonesia Tin Market - icdx.co.id
  • In a week (5/11 – 9/11) the price of ICDX’s Tin moved down 0.08%.
  • Price range between US$ 19,050 - US$ 19,190
  • Highest volatility reached 0.76%.

Market Review

Indonesia tin market weakened on wide fall on export, the export volume in Oct was down 41.42% on monthly basis. On current situation, only PT Timah Tbk can make an export. Unfortunately, this situation (moratorium) will still continue until a further notice from related policy holder.

Meanwhile the recent supply developments in China, which accounts for 24% of global mine production and 50% of global refined production, are price-supportive. Indeed, the Gejiu City government last week announced a plan to dismantle tin ore processing plants in Yunan, which is part of a relocation plan first mentioned in 2016 to better manage heavy metal pollution in the region. Supply disruption is likely to emerge in December because factories built outside the Northern Industrial Park will be shut. As well, ITRI estimates that the shutdown of 30 concentrators will remove around 1,000 tonnes per month of tin concentrates from the market, corresponding to 15% of monthly tin output.

Timah Weekly Chart 181112 - icdx.co.id

Price Performance Indicators

Previous Week % Change
ICDX $ 19,175.00 -0.08%
LME $ 19,310.00 +1.21%
KLTM $ 19,270.00 +0.47%
SHFE ¥ 148,720.00 +1.93%
USD/IDR Rp 14,632.00 -2.27%

Market View

Tinplate Industry Moves to Face Up Trade Challenges

Tinplate mills are enganged in series of restructuring moves to deal with crisis on overcapacity of steel industry as an impact of trade challenges. Arcelor Mittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, reported a 25% decline in net income for the quarter ended September. They have agreed with the European Commission to divest four of its mills as part of its acquisition of Italian steel and tinplate producer Ilva, including a tinplate line in Belgium. To encourage export in China, VAT rebate on metal packaging, including tinplate, has been adjusted higher from November, with steady tin use expected in the next few months. US tariffs are unlikely to impact China production, with US tinplate exports at only 3%. However there is disruption in the US tinplate market, with imports falling 12% in August and leading canmakers dealing with delivery delays and quality flaws.

Manufacturing Exit from China to avoid US Tariff

Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the upcoming Group of 20 summit, with some indication that the two sides are looking to reduce tensions. Still, there’s no certainty for business yet that Trump’s plan to hike tariffs on $200 billion in imports to 25% in January from 10% now will be abandoned or delayed. About a third of more than 430 American companies in China are considering moving production out of China, according to a survey in August and September. On the electronics side, it had a number of companies both from Taiwan, China looking to start manufacturing in the Philippines for the global market to get out of that tariff cycle. Even if President Donald Trump reaches an accord with President Xi Jinping in coming weeks, the diversion of Chinese manufacturing may be irreversible, partly because tensions could flare up again.

WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS CALENDAR

Date Data/Events Actual Expectation Previous
12/Nov Japan - Preliminary Machine Tool Orders YoY (Oct) N/A 2.8%
12/Nov China - New Loans (Oct) CNY 862B CNY 1.380B
13/Nov Japan - Preliminary Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Q3) -0.3% 0.7%
14/Nov China - Industrial Production YoY (Oct) 5.7% 5.8%
14/Nov Japan - Industrial Production MoM (Sep) -1.1% -1.1%
14/Nov Uni Europa - Industrial Production MoM (Sep) -0.3% 1.0%
15/Nov China - House Price Index (Oct) N/A 7.9%
17/Nov USA - Industrial Production MoM (Oct) 0.2% 0.3%
18/Nov Japan - Exports YoY (Oct) N/A -1.2%

Source: ICDX Research




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